“Geghard” Scientific and Analytical Foundation
Researcher
Yerevan, Armenia
Small-State Security after 2020: Armenia and Georgia between Regional Powers, Connectivity, and Strategic Autonomy
Abstract
The period following the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh War brought significant geopolitical changes to the South Caucasus, with particularly profound implications for Armenia and Georgia. The weakening of Russia’s regional influence, together with the consequences of the Russo-Ukrainian War that began in 2022, altered the regional balance of power and prompted small states to further diversify their external security partnerships and cooperation mechanisms while strengthening their domestic infrastructure.
This paper defines the strategic autonomy of small states as the capacity to make and implement sovereign decisions under conditions of unavoidable asymmetric interdependence. Its central research question is: Under what conditions do the diversification of partnerships and the development of connectivity enhance the strategic autonomy of Armenia and Georgia? The analysis focuses on three principal dimensions: the diversification of partnerships, access to credible institutional guarantees, and the preservation of sovereign control over critical connections.
The paper argues that, for the small states of the South Caucasus, strategic autonomy requires both the diversification of dependencies and the strengthening of domestic institutional capacity as a crucial component of external security. Particular attention is also devoted to the potential for selective interstate cooperation, provided that such cooperation does not compromise their autonomy.
Keywords: small states; Armenia; Georgia; South Caucasus; strategic autonomy; connectivity; hedging; regional security.