Khatuna Chapichadze

Georgian Technical University
Associate Professor
International Relations, Geopolitics
PhD in Social Sciences
Tbilisi, Georgia
kh.chapichadze@gtu.ge

The paper analyzes recent developments in the South Caucasus that have the potential to bring about a genuine turning point in the region’s future. In particular, it examines the significance of the historic agreement reached between Armenia and Azerbaijan in August 2025 with the decisive and unprecedented participation and mediation of U.S. President Donald Trump. The agreement is considered not only in terms of bringing to an end a decades-long conflict widely regarded as the most severe and intractable in the region, but also from the perspective of creating and utilizing pragmatic geopolitical and geoeconomic opportunities for the broader normalization and future development of the South Caucasus.

Particular emphasis will be placed on the potential of the recently established strategic partnerships and bilateral agreements between the United States and Armenia, as well as between the United States and Azerbaijan, which aim to expand cooperation in the fields of energy, trade, and technology, including artificial intelligence. Special attention will also be devoted to the role of the so-called Trump Corridor for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP), envisaged as part of a major trade route connecting Central Asia to global markets through Azerbaijan, Armenia, and Türkiye.

The question of Georgia’s position as a traditional Western ally, strategic partner, and key foothold in the South Caucasus has acquired particular urgency in light of recent critical domestic and external political and economic developments. These developments have been widely interpreted both within the country and internationally as manifestations of Georgia’s democratic backsliding, its loss of momentum on the path toward Euro-Atlantic integration, the growing risk of its gravitation toward the Russian sphere of influence, and, consequently, the emergence of new security challenges and the country’s practical vulnerability to them. This situation is significantly conditioned by the weakening, deterioration, or suspension of relations with Georgia’s natural allies and partners.

Despite the declared imperative of “peace,” interpreted by Georgia’s current government as a policy of avoiding the so-called provocation of Russia and flexibly preventing confrontation with it—and encapsulated in the formula, “war or peace—naturally, in favor of peace”—the high degree of societal polarization and profound disagreement over the fundamental values of state development, domestic and foreign-policy orientation, and questions of identity reveal a deep erosion of genuine peace and consensus within the country. This constitutes one of the most serious obstacles not only to Georgia’s development, but also to the successful implementation of a Western geopolitical and geoeconomic formula for the South Caucasus.

The situation is not significantly less complex in neighboring Armenia, despite its defeat in Nagorno-Karabakh and its markedly intensified orientation toward Westernization. At the same time, the Armenian authorities have demonstrated an ability to respond effectively to domestic provocations that are, with a high degree of probability, inspired by external actors, particularly Russia. In Azerbaijan, meanwhile, longstanding problems relating to democracy appear to be receiving comparatively less emphasis against the background of the prioritization of geopolitical and geoeconomic imperatives at both the regional and global levels. These dynamics are further intensified by, among other factors, the continuing Russia–Ukraine war and other ongoing confrontations.