Junior Researcher
Gnomon Wise
Tbilisi, Georgia
l.khutsiberidze@ug.edu.ge

Strategic Diversification of the Foreign Policy of a Small State – Armenia's Multi-Vector Tendencies

The 2018 Armenian revolution caused significant changes in Russia–Armenia relations. Armenia shifted from a strong dependency, established after the collapse of the Soviet Union and the 1991–1994 Armenia–Azerbaijan war, toward a more diversified and relatively autonomous foreign policy. This paper analyses Russia–Armenia relations from 2018 to 2025 to identify the factors that enable small states like Armenia to transition from absolute dependence on a major power to pursuing relatively autonomous policies.

The peaceful revolution that brought a more pro-Western leader to power, compared to previous governments, was seen by Russia as a sharply negative development. Russia's limited intervention during the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war significantly undermined Armenia’s trust in Russian security guarantees. Armenia’s decision to suspend participation in the Russian-led Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO) confirms that Russia has become an unreliable security partner. Armenia’s engagement in bilateral peace negotiations with Azerbaijan, bypassing Russia, further highlights the revision of security policy priorities. Public opinion in Armenia regarding Russia has also become markedly negative.

Economic dependency is another crucial dimension. Armenia sought to balance its involvement in the Eurasian Economic Union by expanding trade relations with the European Union. The Armenian Parliament’s adoption of legislation to initiate EU membership represents a pivotal moment in this economic reorientation.

The study concludes that Armenia has taken successful steps toward a multi-vector foreign policy. Several key factors were identified:
 a) Exhaustion of the main leverage point: Russia initially manipulated the Nagorno-Karabakh issue but eventually lost influence;
 b) Shift of major powers’ attention to another region, reducing focus on Armenia;
 c) Increased interest and involvement of other international actors — Armenia deepened ties with the EU, China, and India;
 d) Internal factors: Pro-Russian forces lost popularity domestically, reducing Russia’s influence.

This paper is particularly important for the South Caucasus region and Georgia, as it illustrates how small states can enhance foreign policy autonomy despite threats from a major power.

 

Keywords: Armenian Revolution (2018), Russia–Armenia Relations, Foreign Policy Autonomy, Multi-vector Policy, South Caucasus