Professor
University of St Andrews
St. Andrews, Scotland
rick.fawn@st-andrews.ac.uk

Conflict and Post-conflict Connectivities and Disconnectivities in the South Caucasus

 

Routinely referred to as the shortage route between Asia and (the rest of) Europe, the South Caucasus region has experienced the most dramatic geopolitical changes in the last five years than since its three countries regained their independence in 1991. Even before recovering all of the former Karabakh region and seven surrounding territories, Baku actively began transformative infrastructural developments. Armenia responded creatively with it “Crossroads for Peace,” and the trilateral pre-peace agreement signed in the White House in August 2025 portends a triple transformative impact for the lynchpin real estate area of Zangezur: a new and much-needed basis for Armenian-Azerbaijan cooperation; a potential American presence; and the further ejection of Russian and Iranian influence. These transformational changes are enormous in European-Eurasian terms, and possibly even globally. The downside is that Georgia’s previous dual position as the transit state for Azerbaijani/Caspian hydrocarbons and as the go-between for Yerevan and Baku is now at considerable risk.  The South Caucasus may now see an ironic simultaneous process of intensified connectivity and dysconnectivity. This talk, based in part on several on-ground working visits and sustained engagements with the parties, assesses these changes and their significances.